Risks & Returns is back. I spent the last decade trading privately; now I’m publishing high-conviction research — roughly one idea a month — plus ongoing notes on my open calls and the macro landscape.
The archive below is the receipts: a decade of specific, dated calls from the original blog. Every entry links to the original post, so you can check the timestamps yourself.
August 31, 2006
The call: Nominal home prices would fall in 2007, with real declines reaching roughly 50% over 5–10 years — while Wall Street economists forecast +1.82% for 2007.
The outcome: US national prices peaked in 2006 and fell ~27% nominally into 2012; the hardest-hit major markets fell 50%+ in real terms — called more than a year before subprime stress went mainstream.
Direction, timing, and magnitude — against consensus
April 24, 2008
The call: Shorted Washington Mutual at $11.94, arguing its risky mortgages could render it insolvent and wipe out shareholders entirely.
The outcome: Covered on September 16, 2008 at $2.25 — an 81% gain in under five months. Nine days later the FDIC seized WaMu and its equity went to zero.
+81% in under five months
September 5, 2007
The call: Shorted bond insurer MBIA at $61.29: a mere 3% loss on its structured-finance book could wipe out its statutory capital — the market was pricing a leveraged credit fund as a safe AAA insurer.
The outcome: MBIA collapsed to ~$5 by October 2008 — roughly a 92% decline — as structured-finance claims overwhelmed its capital.
≈92% decline from the short price
August 29, 2006
The call: Initiated shorts of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers on mortgage-securitization exposure — in August 2006, before a single subprime lender had failed.
The outcome: Closed both shorts in August 2007 for approximately a 20% gain in about 11 months, ahead of the worst of the crisis.
+20%, a year before the collapses
June 24, 2008
The call: Bought February-2009 Fed funds futures at 97.17, rejecting the market's pricing of 83 basis points of Fed hikes — the Fed would not tighten with bank balance sheets deteriorating.
The outcome: Closed at 98.24 on September 14, 2008 — the night before Lehman filed — for roughly $4,500 per contract on $1,350 of margin in 11 weeks. The Fed cut to 0–0.25% by December.
≈$4,500 per contract on $1,350 margin
March 29, 2007
The call: After riding uranium from ~$15/lb, liquidated nearly all holdings — documented gains of 37%, 40%, 31% and 421% on individual names — citing speculative hoarding, a 40-fold rise in exploration companies, and coming demand destruction.
The outcome: Uranium peaked at ~$136–138/lb in June 2007, three months after the exit, then lost more than two-thirds of its value.
Out 3 months before the peak; +421% on the best name
November 7, 2006
The call: Predicted a housing-led US recession in 2007 and a dramatic stock decline that could challenge the 2002 lows.
The outcome: The recession began in December 2007; the S&P 500 fell 57% peak-to-trough, bottoming in March 2009.
Direction right — early on timing by about a year
September 30, 2008
The call: Shorted auto-parts maker American Axle at $7.58 on Big-3 supplier exposure, cash burn, and covenant risk.
The outcome: The stock fell ~30% within a week; covered on October 10, 2008, locking in a large gain in about two weeks. (The company survived — a great tactical short, not a bankruptcy call.)
≈30% in two weeks
August 25, 2015
The call: Raised exposure from 25% to 100% long during the flash-crash week — buying S&P 500 futures below 1900, calling the selloff indiscriminate and saying new highs were only a matter of time.
The outcome: The S&P 500 bottomed within days of the post and made new all-time highs by mid-2016.
Maximum long at the panic low
December 22, 2015
The call: Forecast the S&P 500 would end 2016 between 2200 and 2350, holding 90% net-long into the year.
The outcome: The S&P 500 closed 2016 at 2238.83 — inside the stated range.
Target hit
February 4, 2016
The call: Bought Bank of America at $12.66 during the early-2016 bank selloff, judging recession fears unjustified.
The outcome: Sold one year later for a documented 94% gain.
+94% in a year
March 30, 2015
The call: Shorted palladium at $742/oz with a weekly-close stop near $775.
The outcome: Covered on November 25, 2015 at $540/oz for a ~27% gain.
+27%
How to read this record. You’ll notice I tend to bank profits early — the WaMu short covered nine days before the FDIC seizure, the broker shorts closed at +20% a year before the collapses, uranium sold three months before the peak. I take profits on thesis confirmation rather than squeezing every point. Read this as a record of direction and timing, not of maximized gains.
New research is published here as it’s released. Questions, or want to talk markets? Contact me here, or follow @RisksandReturns on X.
